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5/21/2006

Surplus of homes cools prices

Surplus of homes cools prices
Surely you've noticed an abundance of "for sale" signs around your neighborhood lately. Home sellers are plentiful, home buyers less so. It's becoming more the norm across the nation as existing-home prices continue to cool, according to the latest quarterly survey from the National Association of Realtors.

Home prices are responding to the improvements in inventory.

"With the supply of homes picking up very nicely in many areas of the country, pressure is coming off of home prices," says David Lereah, NAR's chief economist.

Even so, home values rose at an annual rate of 10.3 percent during the first quarter of 2006, with the median value of an existing single-family home at $217,900. During the first quarter of 2005, the median value was $197,600. The median is the point at which half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less. That 10.3 percent annual growth in the first quarter is down slightly from the 13.6 percent rate in the fourth quarter of 2005.

Yet, even as prices begin to level, many of the nation's metropolitan areas are still showing double-digit growth in home values. The NAR survey showed that 60 of the nation's 149 metropolitan regions experienced double-digit growth, while 12 regions decreased in value. Lereah expects that late summer when he reports the second quarter growth, most areas will be back in the normal rates of price growth -- single digits, not double.

Some of the hottest regions showed marked signs of returning to those norms. The Miami metro area, for example, grew an annual 23.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2005. The annualized growth for the first quarter, 2006, fell to 11.2 percent. In the Bradenton/Sarasota, Fla., area, which grew at an annualized rate of 30 percent in the fourth quarter of 2005, the first quarter showed a far tamer 11.2 percent annualized growth rate.

Over the top growth over
The days of over-the-top growth in housing prices may be over, but homeownership is still a stable investment. "Consumers generally can expect normal price appreciation for the foreseeable future, providing solid returns over time," says Lereah.

Leading the nation in growth once again was the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale area of Arizona, where the first quarter price of $268,300 is up 38.4 percent from a year ago. Florida follows with Orlando at $260,500, up 34 percent from the first quarter of 2005, and Gainesville, Fla., with a first quarter median price of $210,100, an increase of 31.9 percent in the last year.

Regionally, the West saw the highest bump in home values where existing home prices rose 12 percent to a median price of $344,000. Homes in the Midwest rose by 6.7 percent to $158,800; home values in the South and the Northeast climbed 6.6 percent. The median price in the South was $179,700 and $285,200 in the Northeast.

The most expensive homes in the nation are in California. Residents of the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif., metro area shop a housing market where the median price for an existing home is $746,800, and in San Francisco the price is $720,400.

Shopping for a bargain? Resale prices were lowest in Danville, Ill., where the median price was $52,500

Condo markets
NAR now reports the pricing changes on condos and cooperatives in 56 markets. Co-ops are included in the condo numbers. The national median condo price was $224,100 during the first quarter, which is 5.2 percent higher than a year ago. The national condo price is higher than the median single-family home because of the high concentration of condos in the most expensive metropolitan regions, says Lereah.

Inventory is again a factor. The number of condos on the market has picked up more strongly than single-family homes, says Thomas M. Stevens, president of the NAR and senior vice president of NRT Inc.

"Condos have good fundamentals given the demographics of buyers, with baby boomers focused on the high end and their kids on more affordable units. However, in a handful of areas where there may be an oversupply, prices may level out, so the longer your time horizon the better your investment," says Stevens.

The best growth rate for condos -- first quarter 2006 versus the same quarter 2005 -- was in the same region as the No. 1 growth for single-family homes. The Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale area saw condo prices jump 38 percent from 2005 to $179,600. The most expensive condos are in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, Calif., metro with the median prices at $615,300.
Median home prices: First quarter 2005 - 2006
ALABAMA
Compare mortgage rates in Alabama

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Birmingham-Hoover
152.1

163.4

7.4
Mobile
117.4

134.9

14.9
Montgomery
118.3

137.8

16.5
ALASKA
Compare mortgage rates in Alaska

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
No data available
N/A

N/A

N/A
Back to map
ARIZONA
Compare mortgage rates in Arizona

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale
193.8

268.4

38.4
Tucson
199.0

248.6

24.9
ARKANSAS
Compare mortgage rates in Arkansas

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Little Rock-N. Little Rock
108.6

123.8

14.0
Back to map
CALIFORNIA
Compare mortgage rates in California

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Orange County (Anaheim/Santa Ana MSA)
656.9

712.6

8.5
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana
473.5

563.9

19.1
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario
343.4

396.2

15.4
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville
352.6

376.2

6.7
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos
584.1

607.3

4.0
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont
686.2

720.4

5.0
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara
736.5

746.8

1.4
COLORADO
Compare mortgage rates in Colorado

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Boulder
337.2

360.4

6.9
Colorado Springs
192.2

209.4

8.9
Denver-Aurora
236.0

244.2

3.5
Back to map
CONNECTICUT
Compare mortgage rates in Connecticut

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk
455.5

471.2

3.4
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford
244.5

250.4

2.4
New Haven-Milford
244.5

276.5

13.1
Norwich-New London
243.0

257.5

6.0
DELAWARE
Compare mortgage rates in Delaware

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Dover
164.4

200.0

21.7
Back to map
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
Compare mortgage rates in Washington, D.C.

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Washington, D.C.
380.6

422.5

11.0
FLORIDA
Compare mortgage rates in Florida

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice
341.9

382.9

12.0
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach
169.5

212.6

25.4
Fort Myers-Cape Coral
226.0

267.4

18.3
Gainesville
159.3

210.1

31.9
Jacksonville
164.4

195.6

19.0
Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay
184.1

208.0

13.0
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach
339.0

377.0

11.2
Ocala
122.2

159.8

30.8
Orlando
194.4

260.5

34.0
Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent
143.8

163.5

13.7
Tallahassee
156.7

176.7

12.8
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater
172.8

207.3

20.0

Median home prices: First quarter 2005 - 2006
ALABAMA
Compare mortgage rates in Alabama

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Birmingham-Hoover
152.1

163.4

7.4
Mobile
117.4

134.9

14.9
Montgomery
118.3

137.8

16.5
ALASKA
Compare mortgage rates in Alaska

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
No data available
N/A

N/A

N/A
Back to map
ARIZONA
Compare mortgage rates in Arizona

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale
193.8

268.4

38.4
Tucson
199.0

248.6

24.9
ARKANSAS
Compare mortgage rates in Arkansas

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Little Rock-N. Little Rock
108.6

123.8

14.0
Back to map
CALIFORNIA
Compare mortgage rates in California

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Orange County (Anaheim/Santa Ana MSA)
656.9

712.6

8.5
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana
473.5

563.9

19.1
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario
343.4

396.2

15.4
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville
352.6

376.2

6.7
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos
584.1

607.3

4.0
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont
686.2

720.4

5.0
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara
736.5

746.8

1.4
COLORADO
Compare mortgage rates in Colorado

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Boulder
337.2

360.4

6.9
Colorado Springs
192.2

209.4

8.9
Denver-Aurora
236.0

244.2

3.5
Back to map
CONNECTICUT
Compare mortgage rates in Connecticut

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk
455.5

471.2

3.4
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford
244.5

250.4

2.4
New Haven-Milford
244.5

276.5

13.1
Norwich-New London
243.0

257.5

6.0
DELAWARE
Compare mortgage rates in Delaware

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Dover
164.4

200.0

21.7
Back to map
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
Compare mortgage rates in Washington, D.C.

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Washington, D.C.
380.6

422.5

11.0
FLORIDA
Compare mortgage rates in Florida

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice
341.9

382.9

12.0
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach
169.5

212.6

25.4
Fort Myers-Cape Coral
226.0

267.4

18.3
Gainesville
159.3

210.1

31.9
Jacksonville
164.4

195.6

19.0
Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay
184.1

208.0

13.0
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach
339.0

377.0

11.2
Ocala
122.2

159.8

30.8
Orlando
194.4

260.5

34.0
Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent
143.8

163.5

13.7
Tallahassee
156.7

176.7

12.8
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater
172.8

207.3

20.0









Surplus of homes cools prices
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Median home prices: First quarter 2005 - 2006
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Compare mortgage rates in New Hampshire

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
No data available
N/A

N/A

N/A
NEW JERSEY
Compare mortgage rates in New Jersey

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Atlantic City
217.4

251.7

15.8
Bergen-Passaic
N/A

N/A

N/A
Middlesex-Somerset-Hunterdon
N/A

N/A

N/A
Monmouth-Ocean
N/A

N/A

N/A
Newark-Union
380.4

405.3

6.5
Trenton-Ewing
225.4

264.9

17.5
Back to map
NEW MEXICO
Compare mortgage rates in New Mexico

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Albuquerque
149.7

171.9

14.8
Farmington
148.2

159.6

7.7
NEW YORK
Compare mortgage rates in New York

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Albany-Schenectady-Troy
170.4

189.9

11.4
Binghamton
87.1

90.1

3.4
Buffalo-Niagara Falls
92.9

94.5

1.7
Elmira
74.5

88.5

18.8
Glens Falls
127.6

145.8

14.3
Kingston
227.7

248.9

9.3
Nassau-Suffolk
446.7

475.3

6.4
New York metro (incl. Northern N.J., Long Island and Pa.)
412.5

458.5

11.2
New York-Edison, N.J.
343.1

374.1

9.0
Rochester
107.8

105.7

-1.9
Syracuse
94.4

104.4

10.6
Wayne-White Plains
456.6

528.7

15.8
Back to map
NORTH CAROLINA
Compare mortgage rates in North Carolina

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, N.C./S.C.
169.4

174.5

3.0
Durham
160.3

162.9

1.6
Greensboro-High Point
136.8

143.0

4.5
Raleigh-Cary
192.7

199.6

3.6
NORTH DAKOTA
Compare mortgage rates in North Dakota

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Bismark
115.8

130.9

13.0
Fargo
125.3

133.4

6.5
OHIO
Compare mortgage rates in Ohio

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Akron
111.2

104.2

-6.3
Canton-Massillon
103.4

104.4

1.0
Cincinnati-Middletown, Ohio/Ky./Ind.
139.6

137.7

-1.4
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor
130.7

126.8

-3.0
Columbus
140.1

141.7

1.1
Dayton
110.0

108.7

-1.2
Toledo
109.8

103.5

-5.7
Youngstown-Warren-Boardman
82.4

81.1

-1.6
Back to map
OKLAHOMA
Compare mortgage rates in Oklahoma

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Oklahoma City
110.3

119.9

8.7
Tulsa
112.3

125.7

11.9
OREGON
Compare mortgage rates in Oregon

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Eugene-Springfield
178.5

223.6

25.3
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, Ore./Wash.
219.8

267.7

21.8
Salem
156.5

191.7

22.5
PENNSYLVANIA
Compare mortgage rates in Pennsylvania

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa./-N.J.
214.8

233.7

8.8
Erie
86.9

95.9

10.4
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa./ N.J./De./Md.
191.2

218.3

14.2
Pittsburgh
106.4

107.7

1.2
Reading
122.2

131.7

7.8
Back to map
RHODE ISLAND
Compare mortgage rates in Rhode Island

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Providence
278.5

287.1

3.1
SOUTH CAROLINA
Compare mortgage rates in South Carolina

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Charleston-North Charleston
189.3

207.6

9.7
Columbia
129.5

N/A

N/A
Greenville
133.5

147.4

10.4
Spartanburg
114.5

124.8

9.0
Back to map
SOUTH DAKOTA
Compare mortgage rates in South Dakota

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Sioux Falls
132.9

132.9

0
TENNESSEE
Compare mortgage rates in Tennessee

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Chattanooga, Tenn./Ga.
123.8

130.2

5.2
Knoxville
135.8

143.0

5.3
Memphis, Tenn./Miss./Ark.
131.5

135.9

3.3
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro
152.1

165.3

8.7
Back to map
TEXAS
Compare mortgage rates in Texas

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Amarillo
102.6

108.4

5.7
Austin-Round Rock
154.1

167.2

8.5
Beaumont-Port Arthur
90.0

99.4

10.4
Corpus Christi
116.5

126.8

8.8
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington
140.0

146.4

4.6
El Paso
104.8

120.0

14.5
Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land
138.1

142.3

3.0
San Antonio
123.6

133.4

7.9
UTAH
Compare mortgage rates in Utah

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Salt Lake City
157.0

184.2

17.3
Back to map
VERMONT
Compare mortgage rates in Vermont

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
No data available
N/A

N/A

N/A
VIRGINIA
Compare mortgage rates in Virginia

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News
174.0

221.1

27.1
Richmond
180.5

210.2

16.5
Arlington-Alexandria
N/A

N/A

N/A
Back to map
WASHINGTON
Compare mortgage rates in Washington

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Kennewick-Richland-Pasco
144.8

152.0

5.0
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue
290.8

338.6

16.4
Spokane
136.3

172.1

26.3
Yakima
126.9

131.7

3.8
WEST VIRGINIA
Compare mortgage rates in West Virginia

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Charleston
112.5

119.0

5.8
Back to map
WISCONSIN
Compare mortgage rates in Wisconsin

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
Appleton
128.0

N/A

N/A
Green Bay
152.8

156.9

2.7
Glens Falls
N/A

N/A

N/A
Madison
209.4

217.4

3.8
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis
198.9

214.2

7.7
WYOMING
Compare mortgage rates in Wyoming

2005
($000s)

2006
($000s)

%
Change
No data available
N/A

N/A

N/A
Source: National Association of Realtors, Quarterly Housing Affordability Index

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